Sunday, September 24, 2023

Sunday Reading II - Be Afraid Be Very Afraid


I came back this evening due to some information I discovered today. First off being a conversation I had with my son in Oregon this afternoon. He has been out there for his job for over a year now and just told me that the company he works for has just distributed a letter informing him and his co-workers that Lay offs are likely soon to begin across all departments within the next few weeks.

Second thing on my way into town to pick up what I need to begin my goat house repairs I drove through an area I haven't been past in a while. Now the town in question was also recently invaded by countless government stimulus buyers and is having as many problems with it as my more rural area. Including inflated and predatory property taxes why they had the chance they rose taxes of course but the area I was driving though is a standard rock cut area that I have driven through many time over the years. It has always been a clean and clear shoulder that many locals have used for collecting rocks from over the years.

These days it is so over grown you can no longer even see the rock face behind the trees, but you can see the sign someone placed along the road mentioning it and how the increased property taxes still failed to make more road crews appear or any more infra structure despite being raised to clear the shoulder again. 

Thirdly for the second week in a row a digital money transfer into one of my IRA accounts was just forgotten about somehow. Not that the money was stolen or anything, when I called I was just informed they were not finishing such transfers right now. Not that it is a highly rated bank. Either, in actuality the bank in questions has been recently taking a lot of heat for some shady alleged actions they have recently done. But I cannot imagine why they would not finish transfers.

Followed all afternoon about warnings of an imminent stock market issue and an unlimited number of new foreclosures all over.  

The final straw for me was the news that Russia just instituted a nationwide ban on the export of Diesel fuel.  Right during the middle of Harvest season and followed by a renewed effort by the Western Liberals to again increase the war in Ukraine.

Now I have no idea what the domestic storage numbers for Russia's Diesel is or if the ban includes other countries yet. This could turn into something bad for future food prices. I shudder to think about the possible implications.

All I am saying is be ready it looks to me like things are going to go down hill fast this week!!!

Keep Prepping Everyone!!!



  1. PP, I am sorry to hear about your son. Getting word of layoffs coming is highly unnerving and stressful. I hope he is spared; at the same time I suspect he would be wise to start looking now. In this environment, companies often have more than one layoff and the first one is usually the "best" one.

    Both in New Home and at The Ranch (where I currently am), lots of signs for homes for sale that have been that way for a while. It is not too unusual up here at The Ranch, but in New Home things have generally move quickly in the past. 3-4 months on the market is a bad sign.

    I have no idea what a ban of Diesel means as I do not know who purchases Russian Diesel. But it will have an impact, somewhere.

    For my money, the increase in rates by UPS to support the new contract will be a huge disincentive to a great many business. Those businesses will have to pass the costs along, leading to less purchases and/or higher prices.

  2. I've been seeing the "FOR SALE" signs staying up out here in the West long enough for the sun to bleach them, whereas before, the houses were selling before the signs even went up. That, and the "OPEN HOUSE" signs. In a hot market, open houses aren't necessary. Now the RE agents are having to hustle to try and get people to buy into the downswing. Can you imagine trying to get people to believe that despite the cost of the house being WILDLY inflated, the cost of interest being DOUBLE what it was a short time back, and the cost of EVERYTHING ELSE being near-or-at double what it cost not long ago, that they can actually see themselves AFFORDING the houses they're being shown???

    I think Russia's diesel sales ban is going to be a backbiter for us. Most of the world runs on diesel; not gasoline. Russia banning sales of its diesel is going to send countries scrambling for another source. Our refineries send most of their diesel overseas, as they get a better price for it vice selling it here. That will mean less diesel for the US. That'll mean more expensive diesel, which will affect the shipping of pretty much EVERYTHING. End result; things get even MORE expensive to buy! ...Diesel is ALREADY about $6.50/gallon out here in Newsom's Netherworld... Oh, but don't worry, California... Electric big rigs are coming to save the day...

    My son works at a "big box home improvement store." He told me it's in danger of closing due to low sales. Gee; I guess when it comes down to buying food or putting up a new patio deck, the choice gets pretty easy...

    Long story short, "they" can tell me things are swell, but it's hard for me to believe a lie when I'm LIVING the TRUTH!

    Keep the larder deep, the Bible open, and the powder dry...

    1. Pete, I note that the current 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 7.75% or thereabouts, about 0.75% higher than we when we first bought a home in 2000. Not a big shock to me; what is a big shock is the fact the price has doubled or tripled in that intervening time. No way we could afford a home in this environment in any urban area. Prices will have to fall a great deal - 50% if you use my math from 23 years ago - to really pick up again.

    2. I bought my house in '14. I came in late in the game because I was in the military for 21 years. The fixed rate was 3.75% back then. Like you said, it's at 7.7% now. I bought the house when the prices were just coming off their lows after '08. The "value" of the house has doubled since then. There is NO WAY I could have afforded my house at today's prices!!!

      as for being late in the game, I've been paying down the principal an extra $200.00 with every payment. Every little bit helps...

      My sons can't afford to buy. They can't afford to rent. Two of the three are still under my roof because of that. The third is in a rental right now. The only reason he can afford it is that his girlfriend's father is the landlord and the house is one of his problem child rentals... In short, he's getting a deal. This is part of the plan. The kids run their balances to zero. Then they suck their parents dry. Guess who ends up with all the money... The ones who say "You will own nothing and be happy..."

  3. TB and Pete - Pretty much Diesel only comes from the US and Russia now and we couldn't keep up last years remember the Diesel shortage we had about February? No w3ord as to what is in store for my son yet. A very trying time to say the least!!


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