For the last several decades cheap fuel allowed the constant expansion of mega cities throughout the world but the sprawl was more noticeable here in the United States namely due to the added incentive of White Flight as some have termed it and the housing bubble that allowed flipping to take place. It manifested itself in the form of suburbs more than direct expansion of the cities themselves. Since I had some in-laws with a direct connection to the government employment nipple who lived in the St. Louis area I was in a position to directly witness this phenomenon of suburban expansion first hand.
In the space of less than 15 years they had moved from the far Western edge of what is now Florrisant finally ending up in the little town of Marthasville which is some 40 miles or more away from Saint Louis and up until the late 90's was just a small speck on the map before the road graders began leveling it and dividing the farmland into lots. About every two or three years like clockwork they would move a bit further out and they certainly were not alone, thousands followed in their wake.
Behind this wave of suburban sprawl came the businesses. Strip malls, outlet centers, golf courses, you name it. I would say in one form or another St. Louis spread it's reach a good 60 miles to the West.
Sitting on the edge of what I call the high tide mark of this sprawl was a large outlet mall just South of I-70 on the Western edge of Warrenton.
during the early 2000's the huge parking lot was always full of cars. The stores were bustling and most spaces were filled. Not to say there wasn't some turnaround because there was. Seems like every time you would go by there one store would be out of business but another soon took it's place. There were about 50 stores in this mall during it's hay day.
Not so anymore however. While the traffic around St. Louis is noticeably lessened the last few years this Mall has suffered horribly. Changing ownership and finally going into receivership. When I drove past this weekend I counted less than three store fronts occupied out of the entire property and they were not name brand outlet stores.
Over the last three years or so I have read more than a few articles putting the blame in one place or another for the decline of this mall. Many of the businesses that were there of course went under nationwide which gives those with an interest in this location a shred of hope that it isn't just this one mall but the truth passes them by daily on I-70.
People are not traveling that far any longer.
Just as the businesses followed the housing as the wave washed across the land the housing will now follow the businesses as it recedes back.
Last I heard the now Ex in-laws even followed as well building a new house in St. Peters which is much closer to down town St. Louis than their last residence. Just as I witness out here the houses in close are selling much faster than the one's way out and as time passes this lag is making a difference.
I wonder how long it will be before we start seeing obviously abandoned houses to go along with these abandoned strip malls?
Keep Prepping Everyone!!!
I had relatives involved in the industry. The early problems with malls go way back tot he time when department stores were taken over by an early wave of predatory financiers. In the day it was a big deal, but is now largely forgotten. The reason why this was critical to the malls is because malls just don't work without the anchor stores.
ReplyDeleteOf course the threats just kept coming; category killer specialty stores, big box retail moving upscale (and as importantly matching the malls shopper friendly store hours), the internet, et cetera.
My area is doing well, and thus is still sprawling in a big way. What is odd is that we are also an attraction point for retirees. You would think retirees would want a more mass transit friendly place, but what do I know.
Russ - There are hot spots that are doing much better than other areas. Which is too be expected. I have found around here having a direct link to education spending gives the city a clear economic edge right now but I am sure there are other links to the Federal cash that work just as well.
DeleteAs for retired and mass transit.... uhmmm well the retired around here would never stoop so low. They are all about new cars every year and private travel.
Every time there is a recession here, it is like waves around a sand castle. We lose more and it never comes back but people adjust and do the best that they can. If you look from a distance, the castle is smaller than it used to be. Some areas of the state are not bothered by this as they are in the government sandcastle which is further up the beach.
ReplyDeleteSf - We lost two gas stations and a couple other businesses that have never come back. Unless people live way out they will not notice for a while yet I think. It took years to get to apex it will take years to decline back unless something else comes along that causes it to move faster.
DeleteThe problem with retail is everyone is going for the same piece of pie. The market is only so big, and you can only divide it up so much before the only thing left is crumbs.
ReplyDeleteRob - Certainly used to be that way but the pie seems to be shrinking and so dot he competitors at least out here anyway.
DeleteWe shopped at that outlet mall when it first opened. Wasn't THAT big of a deal, even then, but bargains could be found. I'm sure it got better before the decline, but it always did seem like putting up a skyscraper in the woods: good idea, wrong place.
ReplyDeleteRP - I heard em mention that they hoped to tap into the traffic goign to the Lake of the Ozarks crowd. I think they had some success initially and then the bedroom communities got closer to where they used it but with the lack of traffic after 08 I think it really died out.
DeleteHonestly until the other day I had rarely looked at it then I glanced over and noticed it was completely empty.
Would it really be so terrible if the strip malls, indoor malls, suburban tsprawl with concomitant upgrades to a "better" neighborhood every 5 years, and the status-worshipping consumer culture that goes with them went away??
ReplyDeleteAlthough, yes, it is an economic step backward, wouldn't that be a return to a saner (not to mention more economically diverse and therefore more stable) way of living??
Anon - Personally I don't think it's a bad thing at all. I also believe it is inevitable. However the way our current economy is set up requires perpetual growth and therefore as things shrink there are plenty of someone's out there who will NOT like it.
DeleteI think we are starting to get the backwash from the west side of St. Louis receding. I'm on the outer fringes of the metro east and we just keep seeing more and more people and businesses out here. While it makes the recession seem a little less it's brutalizing the cost of farm land. Everyone out here is convinced that if you own cleared land it must have gold nuggets laying on top and they can charge whatever they want for it.
ReplyDeleteFor example 77 acres for $1.76M, 60 acres for $900K and the list goes on. Hell good farm ground is $12-14K an acre just on the chance that someone may eventually want to put houses on it. Sure as hell wish I could find some retiring farmer that wants to keep his house, but make sure he doesn't end up surrounded by a subdivision, to sell me 30 acres surrounding him.
Rugby - I haven't been over East of the Mississippi enough lately to judge. It would be interesting if things were focusing out that way and not West and from what I know of Illinois laws and taxes would seem counter productive. I have learned to never under estimate the power of people to believe what they want though so who knows maybe they all think Illinois is the place to be. Perhaps they are giving early tax breaks and incentives for the businesses and figure they will clobber em later.
DeleteI should look into the East side a bit more.