Monday, March 9, 2020

Is this the Black Swan Moment?

Actually I never left. Never stopped prepping and have never stopped watching. There have been a few times I almost started posting again but played the wait and see game. The current state of things has convinced me we are entering a Black Swan period that could in fact historically be remembered as the beginning of a global collapse.

Much as I said years ago we have been in a  long slow slide since 2008. That has not changed but as per my stair step theory it looks like we are approaching a point where we just might be getting ready to jump down an entire flight of those steps in one big leap.

Many Black Swans circling the pond right now. From the latest SAAR's outbreak, Stock market crashing, Europe finally mobilizing at the Greek border claiming to stop the migrant invasion of Europe (we will see). Chinese economic activity still impossibly low for 1 Billion people after claiming only a few thousand dead.

Will this perfect storm peter out or bring on the global crisis we have seen building for over a decade now? The Fed has started pumping again, nothing has really recovered and no matter what this is going to be another step down but will it be THE STEP?

That remains to be seen but it is close enough that it is time to seriously wake up and begin putting the final touches for sustained living in place and prepare yourself to stop living in two worlds and figure on only the one we been preparing for to be our focus. This could be it and I have come back right now to simply give you a wake up call. There maybe more to come the next few days will tell.

Time to Start Prepping again Everyone!!!!!


  1. So glad to hear from you!

    I'm not sure if this is the big one or not but I know you can't trust the numbers that are coming out of China. They lie about everything...

  2. Damn! Look who's back in town!

    Y'know, this may be "the one." It may not be. Pray for peace, prepare for war. That's my game.

    I actually never stopped prepping. I de-emphasized it a little at times, but never lost sight of it. Face it; staying at GQ 24/7 gets fatiguing!

    Welcome back!

  3. Preppy! You are alive! I am overjoyed.

    It does look grim, does it not? I cannot be sure which pushed the other over the edge, the oil meltdown or the China meltdown or the Coronavirus Meltdown - none the less, as you state, there are multiple swans circling the pond right now. Maybe too many to pull back from at this point.

  4. This is what we've been preparing for buddy.


  5. Good to see you back.

    My own $0.02 (not adjusted for inflation), is not yet but that it may be a credible dress rehearsal for things that could be.

  6. Glad to see you're still alive, PP!!! Welcome back!

    I am betting people will have forgotten all about Coronavirus in three weeks. And yes, your Republic will hold for a couple years at least. You have to remember that most of our ills, both in Canada and the US - are the result of stupidity and apathy. Both are easily reversed, and will be when things get so bad that guys like us get off the couch.

    Please - keep posting! The Smallhold has many loyal fans!!! :)

  7. wee doggies!

    wish kimber would come back too

  8. Well Hello to you. Yep I think at this point the deck of the ship is at the water level, no need to jump ship just swim away. If you don't get sucked under.. We all know China has been lying since day one. Now they said life is getting back to normal..You know what that means??...The firing squads are back to executing once again.

  9. Hey! I have been thinking black swan but not so much of the virus killing people but the damage from supply chain problems since the globalists have put so much of our economy into chinese factories.
    Then it will be factories all over the world that slow or shut down for a period at least. This will all go away eventually but the world economy is so fragile that the economies will be hurt. When economies go down the socialist take more power and that will be the real harm as they will eventually put everyone in a dark age with their non-working system. That is my fear and hopefully I am wrong. Time to start getting the garden ready, warming up the last few days, peaches are blooming! Still growing the tobacco you sent years ago, I have a good stock of it cured and ready to trade if necessary. I have 2 cars running that don't use computers along with the tractor and another little truck I am building to get fire wood with. Raising hops to trade to the local breweries. My storage grain is an old variety of open pollinated dent corn. We have a good supply of food that we can each year and deer, coons and other small game running around. I have game cameras out which has really helped me keep up with possible food sources. Still prepping for the long run.

  10. Glad you are still with us. I laugh every time I see a news report of panic at the stores. We could hold out here for 3-4 months without ever getting into the Mountain House supplies. I do need to check my diesel tank though. Catch you later.

  11. Good to see you back. I always look on the bright side. At least it's not raining....

  12. This has to be about the most predictable black swan out there.

    Glad to see your ok. I miss your stories of cattle prodding your mom, and your conversations, etc. with co-workers. I remember back to your warehouse days, but the dealership folk were pretty entertaining as well.

  13. Hey I sent you an email to the pp.... one.

  14. Can't go to church? Sunday Mass and Protestant Service for March 22 (Video)

  15. Hey good to hear from you!! Please post some more. Down here in west Texas we are still plugging along. Lots of food sources here.

  16. PioneerPreppy! It's a delight that you took the time to stick your head into the virtual room and say "hi!" How are all your critters doing? (Always loved those posts).

  17. Welcome back! Good to hear from you... and ditto to what Leigh said.

  18. I think that black Swan moment is really here now!

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