As I travel around America's heartland traversing large interstates and small two lane highways spanning the Great Plains over to the Ohio and Mississippi river valleys, down into the Ozark Highlands and even into cotton country a bit or up through Amish land into Iowa I have been getting a real feel for just how this decline is playing out.
Growth is localized into a few key areas especially business growth. While it is not uncommon to see the occasional government construction or the new house/line of duplexes going up no matter where you are seeing actual business growth is a rare thing indeed and almost always is limited to those areas with a high concentration of public colleges and universities nearby.
Having routinely traveled most of these roads a decade or more ago then hitting them again now also gives me an almost time capsule quality of observation.
Recently I have begun seeing comments on articles and forums that support claims I have been making for months now.
People are not driving like they used to.
Highways that used to fill me with dread knowing I was going to be stuck behind some commercial vehicle going 20 miles under the speed limit for miles with no way to pass are now a breeze. I still hit the occasional semi or grain truck but before oncoming traffic meant I was stuck I now have frequent breaks where I can get around them.
Just yesterday I delivered a 2014 F450 diesel to a 16 year old kid.
I drove this truck some 220 miles down Ozark Highland two lane highways. Up and down hills so steep you could literally watch the fuel gauge drop as the pedal went to the floor. I pulled up to a small two bedroom house in a subdivision that was thrown together in the last 10 years or so. Nothing fancy just one of thousands of the lower end middle class subdivisions that went up everywhere in the late 90's and early 2000's.
The driveway was so small and the garage filled with stuff that I got to listen to the discussion this young man was having with his parents about who's vehicle was now going to be forced to street parking since they now had three. I couldn't tell you what reasoning they had for thinking a 16 year old kid needed a truck of this size as it isn't my business but I must admit I did wonder about it a bit.
The newly licensed young man then drove me over to a local dealership where I picked up a brand new Mustang to take back North up the same roads I just came down.
The dealerships up North are buying up left over 2014 Mustangs as fast as possible right now because there is a serious run on em as people try and buy em at what they believe is a discount before the 2015's come out.
People may not be driving like they used to but let me tell you new vehicle sales are proceeding at a record pace. It's almost like those guys you see who buy a new firearm and then never have more than 1 box of ammo for the thing. I guess they look good sitting in the driveway or something.
People can talk themselves into any thing. I have heard so many excuses from buyers when I deliver their vehicles nothing surprises me anymore. I just nod my head and tell them how right they are or of course I see their point. I don't ask and only agree with their opinions when they voluntarily give them unasked but the levels of denial some must be in leave me shaking my head for hours on the return trip.
To me it's like they have this NEED to buy things but now can not afford to go shopping anymore so they resort to credit and the way things are structured it's easier to buy a new car on credit than it is to fund a shopping spree. If you get my meaning. How many times I have heard the words "I can't really afford this but..."
It's just crazy.
I wonder how long it's going to be before I start seeing the car repossession trucks out all over again like I did in 2009?
Got to make you wonder.
Keep Prepping Everyone!!!
Maybe you can get a job with the repo man very soon and drive these vehicles away from the folks who bought them.
ReplyDeletePP you will have then come full circle.
Matt - Ya know I thought about that. I actually have a moral issue with jobs I have done in the past. Driving that forklift for years as I helped spread multi-cult propaganda to children all over the world really caused me to have some conscious issues. I feel better about this job as the people are doing it to themselves and honestly it's a damned fun and interesting job, low pressure, friendly bosses etc.
DeleteHowever I don't think I have the proper mentality to be car repo guy. Things would escalate in a bad situation and someone would get hurt. People today don't know their own limits which is why we have out of control police I think. Would be better for me to just stay out of that type of situation :)
Matt may be on to something, there ... just sayin'.
ReplyDeleteRp - I have had repo guys pull into my drive a couple of times over the years. Along with a bail bonds crew a time or two. Usually they are lost but on two occasions (once with the repo and once with the bondsmen) they thought they were in the right place although they weren't. Both times almost resulted in a shooting. The repo guy was convinced my wife was actually a woman who lived down the road and after I forced him to leave at gun point he called the sheriff and reported that I was holding my wife hostage at gunpoint just so they would show up and get her out of the house. This was after we had showed him her drivers license to. He wanted that car the woman had and wouldn't believe he was in the wrong place and was convinced the car was hidden somewhere on the property.
DeleteNot a job I would ever take someone, maybe me, would get killed.
Another great thought provoking post.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob!!
DeleteI often wondered who is buying new cars and heard once that they changed the car sales report to make a sale include when the factory "sells" one to a dealer. So the report looks like record sales where in reality many of the cars are on the dealer lot still for sale. I just don't see many new cars around my area. I suspect that many of the car buyers are people who watch the evening news and think the recession is over and unemployment is really going down, the low information crowd.
ReplyDeleteSf - Well were I work they sell a ton of em. I haven't seen one particular type that buys It seems to me everyone who can get approved buys a new car from poor to rich, they just buy different tiers.
DeleteThe excuse I hear the most often is that the old one is too expensive to keep running. Then I think how much their new payment is plus insurance and think how many new transmissions and such I could replace each month with what they pay.
We don't have the new car onslaught like in 08-09. We have more and more older vehicles, but the one stand out; more and more cars are not being maintained. The Moose and I have not made one road trip in the last two weeks where there wasn't a car with a taillight out. It's becoming a common theme.
ReplyDeleteIzzy - I will say I am once again also seeing a number of old beaters on the road. I used to see em alot back in 09 and 10 but not so much the last few years until this Summer. Not sure what is up with that though.
DeletePP,
ReplyDeleteNo I wouldn't want to be a repo person. Our son went out on a repo with one of his friends and they picked the vehicle up with the owner confronting them. I told him this was not a job for him.
Give it sometime and the young man will end up not being able to pay for the truck.
Sandy - Well at 16 I know he didn't get the loan for it, must be all on his parents but why or how a 16 yo would need such a truck I just cannot fathom.
DeleteThe same problems are being created. No one learned anything from 2008 and it's gonna be bigger next time.
ReplyDeleteK - I fear you are right.
DeleteI don't watch TV much but I do listen to the radio and I have been hearing ads for both banks and Credit Unions as well as the Payday loan types advertising "Auto equity loans" and it sends shivers down my spine every time I hear it.
ReplyDeleteMASR - Ya they are pumping out the loans available ads around here too and from what I have seen approving almost all of them.
DeleteA very observant post. On the point of the universities. My area has the University of NC, NC State, Duke and a number of smaller institutions all within 30 miles. It is doing very well. But the rest of North Carolina is much more a mixed bag.
ReplyDeleteRuss - Columbia Mo. has UMC, Columbia college and Stephens univ. and that place is hopping. New businesses, new apartments, construction everywhere. Down the road about 30 miles from Columbia are a couple other small colleges but they don't seem to be bringing in the big bucks as much. Seems everywhere else if there is construction going on it's government based in some form.
DeletePreppy - I am amazed by the newer and expensive cars that children a little older than my daughter are driving in high school - cars we cannot afford (and probably never will). I am pretty sure none of those are paid for directly by cash.
ReplyDeleteIn some ways I think the growth is just as you say but is reflected in companies as well. Larger companies (at least in my industry) are on a tear to swallow up smaller companies or divest themselves of non-performing assets. I am actually looking at the reality of having to relocate not so much from desire but from the fact that my industry where I am is shrinking, not growing and at a smaller company the future looks grim.
TB - YA what I see kids driving is just unreal these days. I never see a youngster in a beat up old car anymore it's always middle aged or older people.
DeleteI read that many companies are using the zero interest rates to buy up as much of their own stock as possible and that is in effect boosting their profits in a large way due to dividends not going out and no interest to report on loans. Kinda a stealth way of downsizing if they want to without showing a loss.
The average credit card dept for someone who lives in the USA is about $15,500.00/person. People buy according to what the minimum payment will be on their cards and based on what they earn/month. One setback & they lose everything they are buying on time, all the money they have spent and then they have no reserve to get by on. Then what? They blame everyone but themselves, sign up for food stamps and expect us to pay their way.
ReplyDeleteMV - It's that fear of setback that has kept me debt free for so long now. Wonder when or if it's gonna take a bite out of those who do not fear it?
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